Monthly Archives: January 2009

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 3: securitization

In my last post I talked about how banks make a profit by taking your deposits, and paying you interest on them and lending out those deposits to people who want to borrow money, charging a higher rate of interest on the loans than they pay on deposits – this difference being the bank’s profit.

This assumes that the banks simply keep the loans on their own books and collect the loan payments over time. However, banks will often sell these loans off to investors, which is called securitization.

A good example is David Bowie (stay with me). In 1997 David Bowie calculated what he expected his royalty earnings from record sales to be for the next ten years, and decided he’d rather have the money now. So he packaged up the rights to his royalty earnings and sold them to investors in the form of Bowie Bonds. Bowie was paid $55m in 1997 for these bonds, and over the next ten years the investors collected whatever royalties Bowie would have earned on his record sales.

In effect, this is what banks do with mortgages. They lend out, say, £10m in mortgages. If they were to keep the mortgages on their own books, they would earn (for example) £15m in mortgage payments over 10 years. But rather than do that, the bank instead takes this package of £10m worth of mortgages and sells it to investors for the market price. These investors then receive a return on this investment, in the form of mortgage payments from those who borrowed money from the bank in the first place.

Again, wikipedia is much better than me at explaining these things:

XYZ Bank loans 10 people $100,000 a piece, which they will use to buy homes. XYZ has invested in the success and/or failure of those 10 home buyers- if the buyers make their payments and pay off the loans, XYZ makes a profit. Looking at it another way, XYZ has taken the risk that some borrowers won’t repay the loan. In exchange for taking that risk, the borrowers pay XYZ interest on the money they borrow.

From the perspective of XYZ, those loans are 10 different assets. They have value- one, if the loan fails, XYZ takes ownership of the house. Two, if the loan succeeds, XYZ gets their money back along with the interest they charge.

XYZ can do two things with those loans. They can hold them for 30 years and, they would hope, make a profit on their investment. Or they could sell them to some other investor, and walk away. In doing this, they would make less profit than if they held onto them long term, but they would benefit in that they make some profit while also getting their original investment back. They give up some of the reward (profit) in exchange for not having the risk.

So XYZ Bank decides they’d rather have the cash now. They could sell those 10 loans to 10 investors. Each investor would be taking a risk in buying those loans, because if any loan defaults, that one investor loses. Naturally, investors would not be willing to pay very much for those loans, knowing the risk involved. XYZ wants to sell those loans for the best price they can get, so they decide to securitize those loans. They combine the 10 loans into one entity, and then they split that one entity into 10 equal shares. Each investor still pays the same $100,000, but instead of owning one loan, they will own 10% of all 10 loans. If one loan fails, every investor loses 10%.

The result is that XYZ bank is able to sell their assets for more money, and investors are insulated from the volatility of directly owning mortgages.

Such is the power of securitization. And this is basically what happened with all the subprime mortgages lent out in the US. They were packaged into securities and then sold to investors.

Next post on how this affected banks so badly.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 2: How do banks work?

I’ve decided that the entire economic crisis as a whole is too difficult for me to explain fully in simple terms (partly because I personally don’t understand it all and partly because there are so many reasons for it), so I’ve decided to re-focus this series of posts slightly.

I will (try to) explain to you exactly how the subprime mortgage market collapsed, and why this is bad for banks and for the economy. It’s not the only major force behind the recession, but it’s a biggie.

If you want to try and understand the entire economic downturn, try these wikipedia articles:

Global financial crisis of 2008-2009

Late 2000s recession

Financial crisis of 2007-2009

Anyway, I will focus on the causes and effects of the subprime mortgage collapse. And to first understand that, we must understand how a bank makes its money.

We all have a bank account, many of us two or three or more. The reason we do this is because our money is safer in a bank than under our beds. Not only this, but the bank usually gives us a (very small) return on our money, in the form of interest. I think my current account pays out about 2% interest per annum, meaning that if I had £100 in my bank for one year, then at the end of the year I would have £102.

But a bank doesn’t just hold onto your money and let you get at it whenever you want, and pay you for the privelige. It lends your money out. Say you and 9 other people all deposit £100 in a bank, the bank would have £1000 on its books. Then someone comes along and asks the bank for a loan. The bank lends this person (let’s call him Dave, because that’s a boring name) £200, leaving the bank with £800 left on its books. But the bank lends the money out to Dave at a rate of, say, 10% per annum. That is, assuming Dave pays nothing on the loan for the first year, he will owe the bank £220. The bank will do the same to Mary and John, lending them £200 then asking for the loan back at the end of the year.

So in total the bank has lent out £600 of the £1000 worth of deposits that I and 9 others placed in the bank at the start of the year. If all the loans are repaid at the end of the first year, then the bank now has £1060. If it pays out the 2% interest on the ten accounts that the bank has (a total of £20), then the bank is left with a year end profit of £40.

The bank’s profit is the difference between the interest it pays on deposits, and the interest it charges on loans. Simple so far.

Next post on what the bank does with those loans after they’ve lent them to you.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch

As an economics student every now and then my friends ask me, “Andy, what exactly is going on with this whole economic crisis?” I try my hardest to explain this to them, but this scenario usually happens after a couple of beers, at which point they’re in no mood to listen to me talk about derivatives, mortgage-backed securities and hedge funds, and I’m not great at explaining them.

But I think it’s very important that people my age try to at least comprehend what’s going on in the world economy at the moment. I’m going to try and do a series of posts explaining the main causes and effects of the current economic crisis. If at any point you think I’ve made a mistake, or overlooked anything, or misunderstood something, please, let me know.

Firstly then, a few resources to help people get a grasp on the main issues. BBC has done a 3 part series recently called “The City Uncovered with Evan Davis”. You can watch them online here:

Banks and How To Break Them

Tricks with Risk

When Markets Go Mad

Note: these links definitely work for UK readers – I’m not sure about people in the US or other countries. If you have any problems viewing them let me know and I’ll try and find a solution.

Evan Davis is (or, was) the Economics Editor for the BBC, and he’s an incredibly smart guy. Most people just know him as the guy who presents Dragons Den (and reminds people constantly that the participants need to get ALL the money they’re asking for, or they leave with nothing, as if we didn’t know that already – the show’s been on for like 5 years now). But Evan is brilliant at explaining complex economic and financial issues in simple terms, as evidenced in these videos.

That’s 3 hours worth of viewing, and although it’s long, it’s well worth the investment of your time to try to understand better the causes of the breakdown in the financial markets.

More coming soon. Thanks guys.

Link round-up 20.01.09

3 good articles I read today:

How To Be Awesome

“Working your ass off, at least during specific seasons in life, is also a prerequisite for being awesome. This goes at the top, because if you don’t like hard work, good luck. I hung out with J.D. Roth in Portland a few weeks ago, and we talked about the big success of his personal finance site. Guess how many hours a week he has worked on the site since going full-time last year? 60 HOURS EVERY WEEK. That’s right, aspiring bloggers – you too can have 70,000+ readers and write your own ticket to internet fame – but it won’t happen by playing World of Warcraft every night.”

Why Nine Inch Nails is the future of the music biz

People could pay $5 for all 36 songs, and for $10 they got a two-CD set and 16-page booklet. And then they could buy the $75 deluxe edition package, with a DVD and a Blu-ray disc, a booklet and a nice box. And then there was the $300 Ultra-Deluxe Limited Edition Package, with 2,500 units. It incuded all the deluxe stuff and a bunch of other things, with each personally signed by Reznor.

“It was special, it was unique, and it added value to the music,” says Masnick. “It took less than 30 hours for these to sell out: that’s $750,000 gross. In the first week alone if you include the other parts, it brought in $1.6 million for music that was being given away for free with no record label.”

How low can homes go? Try $0.

Earlier in the day, I’d previewed the North American International Auto Show, where the car of the year was a Hyundai. A Hyundai Genesis, to be precise, with an MSRP of $37,250. Here, even a Kia or a Pontiac listed for $16,000.

By contrast, the median price of a home sold in Detroit last month was $7,500, according to Realcomp, a Farmington Hills, Mich., multiple-listing service, down 50 percent from last year.

Mason counted 1,228 homes listed for under $10,000, 209 of which were under $1,000.

These are all from my delicious account. Feel free to add me to your network, and if you come across anything you think I might like, feel free to send it my way. And if you’re not using delicious bookmarks yet, you should be.

The value of work

One of the things that everyone has been talking about recently is Gladwell’s newest book, Outliers. Fair enough, I’ve read it, and so has everyone else. But the thing most people seem to remember from the book is the 10,000 hour rule: that to be truly brilliant at anything you need to put in around 10,000 hours (which works out at approximately 3 hours a day for 10 years). I’m not going to comment on whether this is true or false, because probably the only things I’ve done in my life for 10,000 hours is sleep and waste time on the internet, both of which I consider myself world-class at.

A lot of Outliers focuses on the other factors that influence success – birth dates, cultural heritages, that sort of thing. But are any of them as important as working your fucking ass off?

Jerry Seinfeld is one of the best comedians in the world. He had one of the most popular shows of all time, and he has legions of fans. In the film Comedian (which I watched on Charlie Hoehn‘s recommendation – it’s a great film for anyone interested in stand-up comedy) the camera follows Jerry around the country watching him develop new standup material. He works, and works, and works his ass off. He hits numerous comedy clubs on the same night, for months on end, trying out new material, tightening it, refining it and making it great. He puts in hours and hours of work.

And he’s been doing it for years. That’s why he’s the best. He’s not the best because he was born in 1954, or because his parents were Jewish. It’s because he writes jokes every single day, does multiple sets night after night for months on end and spends hours every day obsessing over every single thing he does on stage to make sure he has the best possible act he can have.

He’s the best because he works harder than everyone else around him. There’s nothing stopping any one of us from being the best at whatever it is we want to do. You just have to work hard enough for it. You have to work, and work, and work. And then work some more.

Now I just have to find something worth working for.

Addendum: I’m probably still a bit too young, naive and inexperienced to totally get what he’s saying, but Tucker Max (yes, I’m talking about him again) did a fantastic speech at UCLA the other day about following your dreams, which you can watch here. I know it sounds cheesy, but trust me, it’s not.