The job market sucks, and it’s my fault

Recently it seems that I’ve been reading nothing but stories about how degrees are worthless and that the job market for new graduates is terrible. Today, from the paper of record:

Employment rates for new college graduates have fallen sharply in the last two years, as have starting salaries for those who can find work. What’s more, only half of the jobs landed by these new graduates even require a college degree, reviving debates about whether higher education is “worth it” after all.

The people profiled in the article aren’t the only ones struggling. I have tons of friends (subtle brag) who either graduated last summer, or are about to graduate this summer, and have few, if any, job prospects. I’m one of them.

So is the economy to blame? Partly, sure. It’s a hell of a lot harder to walk into a £30k a yearjob straight after graduation than it was in 2006. Any foray into the job market will likely mean competing either with literally hundreds of other graduates, or people with 5 years of experience who have been laid off recently. And if you just want to earn some spare change while you look for your REAL career, say, as a temporary receptionist, you’re competing with over 80 other people for one spot. Good luck!

But why should anyone hire me over anyone else? Are my grades that much better? No. Do I have incredible work experience that gives me social proof and is a clear indicator that I know what I’m doing? No. Do I have high-value skills that no-one else has? No.

Sure, companies are still hiring people, but you have to be exceptional to cut through the swathes of candidates with identical CVs and land that coveted graduate scheme role. Are you exceptional? I know I’m not. Fuck it, if you were really brilliant, you wouldn’t even have a CV.

So what’s the solution? I’m not sure, because I’m one of the unemployed people at the moment. But from stealing the ideas of people smarter than I am, I can guess it has something to do with:

  • Doing something, anything, to show that you’re not just sitting on your arse, i.e. volunteer work, working for a non-profit.
  • Reaching out to people who you admire, and offering to work for them for free, if you can learn something while doing it
  • Taking the ridiculous amount of free time you have and doing something productive with it: if you have no skills, it’s time to learn some.
  • Create something: you’re young, and have no family to support, no mortgage to pay or house to lose if you go broke, so why not start a company? Even if it fails (which it probably will), an attempt to start a business would sure look better on a CV than “was an integral part of the team at Wetherspoon’s pub”.

I’m having trouble finding a job at the moment, and it’s because I haven’t done any of these things. None of these have any barriers to entry: if you want to learn to program, there’s probably a thousand different sites to teach you how. If you want to start a company, the government will walk you through the process. It costs nothing to send an email to someone you admire and offer to work for them. The only barrier to entry is having the motivation and the desire to try something different, to challenge yourself, to follow a difficult path without knowing exactly where you will end up.

Or there’s always law.

2011 second-half goals

University life has but 3 weeks left in store for me. My last exam is on June 1st, and after that, assuming everything goes OK, I’ll be done with education (at least for now – I’m still on the fence about whether I want to do an MA in a year or two).

At the moment, it doesn’t look like I’ll have a job to walk into as soon as I graduate. I’m still applying for things, but at the moment no firm offers. Just like a ton of other graduates.

So, rather than sit around for six months, working part-time at a bar and praying that someone walks in and hands me a job, I’m going to get proactive. On 1st June, I’m going to start working towards these ten goals:

  • Run a 10k race, in preparation for running the London Marathon next year.
  • Learn to speak French fluently.
  • Learn HTML, CSS, Javascript and PHP.
  • Write at least one blog post per week.
  • Get my level 1 cricket coaching badge.
  •  Get some work experience either at a non-profit or for a local political group.
  • Start, run and grow an online community.
  • Self-publish an ebook.
  • Write a journal every night.
  • Write a half-hour comedy pilot script.
You might notice that this is adapted from Seth Godin’s list that he wrote two years ago. It was a good idea then, except I wasn’t an unemployed college student. Now, it looks like I will be. Time to get to work.

Lies, damn lies and statistics – AV edition

I got a leaflet through my door a few days ago supporting the ‘No to AV’ campaign here in the UK. A cross-party group of politicians, including all of the Conservative party, oppose switching from the first-past-the-post system we currently use in parliamentary elections and switching to the Alternative Vote (AV) system of elections.

Among the claims in this leaflet was this:

The cost of AV is £250 million. This referendum alone is costing £91 million. And switching to AV would cost even more:

  • £130 million on electronic vote counting machines
  • £26 million on explaining the new system to voters

Instead, that money could provide: 2,503 doctors, 6,297 teachers, 8,107 nurses, 35,885 hip replacements or 69,832 school places. At a time when people are losing their jobs or having their pay frozen, should we really be spending this money on a politicians’ fix?

Do you see any problems with these stats? Firstly, the claim that ‘the cost of AV is £250 million’ is vague. Is that a one-off cost? Per year? Per election? I have no idea.

What about the fact that the money could provide 2,503 doctors? Is that their yearly salary? Is that the cost of training new doctors? How long could we pay 2,503 new doctors for before the money ran out? £250m divided by 2503 is just shy of £100,000, so if all doctors earn an average of £100,000, the £250 million would last just shy of a year.

But according to NHS Careers there are a number of different pay grades depending on experience, speciality etc. So what the AV leaflet should really say is:

£250 million could buy:
# of doctors Type For
2,503 Junior Hospital Trainee doctors 4 years, 164 days
2,503 Doctor in specialist training 3 years, 131 days
2,503 Specialist/Associate Specialist doctors Between 1 year, 153 days and 2 years, 259 days
2,503 Consultants Between 363 days and 1 year, 124 days
2,503 Salaried GPs Between 1 year, 84 days and 1 year, 310 days

I got these numbers by calculating the yearly cost of 2,503 doctors of various salaries as given by the NHS careers site above, and then dividing 250 million by that number to calculate how long we could pay all those doctors before the money ran out. As is clear from the table, saying that “£250 million could provide 2,503 doctors” is pretty meaningless without at least a few additional qualifiers.

Also, according to the BMA, the cost of training a doctor is anywhere from £274,354 to £390,272, depending on the type of training. So the £250 million could be used to train anywhere from 640 to 911 doctors – still not close to the figure that the leaflet gives.

More problems arise when we examine the actual cost of AV itself. The claim that AV costs £250 million is based upon these figures:

Referendum £91m
Electronic voting machines £130m
Explaining new system to voters £26m
Total £247m

OK, so it’s not quite £250m, but I’m not going to quibble about a puny little £3m difference. But again, let’s think about these costs. The cost of the referendum itself is a one-off cost, as is educating the public. As far as the electronic vote counting machines, yeah, they sound expensive. But if you amortise the cost across, say, the life of one parliament (let’s say 4 years to be generous) then it comes to £32.5m per year, or approximately 0.000046% of total government spending.

Another argument the leaflet gives against AV is this:

AV would give the Lib Dems extra seats. That would mean more hung parliaments in which the Lib Dems get to choose who forms a government – by making back-room deals after the election’s over.

This may well be true. But it’s not necessarily a bad thing, and the Conservatives (the main party behind the No to AV campaign) are glossing over the fact that these back-room deals are exactly how the Conservatives managed to form a government in the first place.

I understand that campaign literature needs to be biased and present a particular point of view in an attempt to convince people that your ideas are correct, but I don’t like being lied to or made to feel stupid. Feel free to try to persuade me, but don’t try to pull the wool over my eyes, and don’t think I’m an idiot.

Life advice from Will Smith

The two keys to life: running and reading.

When you’re running, and you’re out there and you’re running, there’s a little person that talks to you, and that little person says “Oh, I’m tired, my lung’s about to pop off, I’m so hurt, I’m so tired, there’s no way I can possibly continue.” And you want to quit, right? That person, if you learn how to defeat that person when you’re running, you will learn how to not quit when things get hard in your life.

The doctrine of the strenuous life

That’s the title of a speech that Theodore Roosevelt gave in Chicago in 1899. Here is my favourite part:

We do not admire the man of timid peace. We admire the man who embodies victorious effort; the man who never wrongs his neighbour; who is prompt to help a friend; but who has those virile qualities necessary to win in the stern strife of actual life. It is hard to fail; but it is worse never to have tried to succeed. In this life we get nothing save by effort.

90 days

That’s how long I have left at uni. I was going to write that it feels like just yesterday when I started, but it doesn’t. It feels like three and a half years ago.

But I’ve loved every minute of it. Coming to uni is all I’ve wanted to do since I was about 12 years old, which I know is probably weird – I didn’t want to be an astronaut or a doctor or a formula one driver, I just wanted to be a student. And now I have been. It’s been fantastic, but now I feel like this chapter in my life is just about ready to end, which is good, because it is ending, very soon.

Which leads me, in Jed Bartlet fashion, to ask: what’s next?

I don’t know, but I’m looking forward to it.

Locus of control

In a class the other day, the lecturer was talking about common traits among successful entrepreneurs – risk-takers, creative types, driven to succeed.

One of them was locus of control. From wikipedia:

One’s “locus” can either be internal (meaning the person believes that they control their life) or external (meaning they believe that their environment, some higher power, or other people control their decisions and their life).

Not surprisingly, the theory is that successful entrepreneurs have a high internal locus of control.

This is something that’s talked about a lot in self-development literature, particularly with pickup artists. The other week I listened to an interview between a pickup artist and Ramit Sethi, discussing the crossovers between pickup and personal finance. They mentioned one key similarity – the mental barriers that stop people achieving their goals.

  • I could get that girl, if only I was better looking/in better shape/funnier/more charismatic
  • I would be saving more and investing, if only I earned more money/didn’t have all this debt/knew where to start

Similarly:

  • I can’t get a job/start a company now because the market is tough/I don’t have enough experience/it’s a really competitive area

How many times have you heard people say things like this? All these thought processes have one thing in common – an external locus of control. “I could do X if Y happened (but I can’t control Y).” But let’s break these thought processes.

Society generally holds men to much lower standards of looks than women – any guy with a decent haircut, workout regime and some new clothes looks pretty good (and in any case, looks are much less important to women than to men). Anyone can go running 3 times a week and buy a cheap set of weights to use at home. Toastmasters helps tons of people become more confident, as do improv classes, not to mention that you could always just, you know, talk to more women when you get the chance. There are people who save money on tiny salaries, by forgoing the things we often see as essential, like an iPhone and eating out all the time. There’s a ton of books and blogs out there to help you get started managing your money. Groupon, the fastest growing company ever, was founded 18 months ago, in the midst of the biggest recession for 30 years. And tons of people still get hired in a down market, they just have to be better at what they do.

In a sense, it’s liberating when you start framing things with an internal locus of control – you actually can do pretty much anything, if you really want to.

It’s also terrifying. All those excuses you’ve ever told yourself, the assumptions you’ve made, you start to see them for what they truly are – irrelevant. And then the only thing left is you.

My biggest weakness

I saw a thread the other day on Quora asking how best to respond when a job interviewer asks what you think your weaknesses are. Judging by what people with more experience than me have said, it’s not the best interview question in the world, but in a sledgehammer, brute force kind of way, it does require you to be at least a little introspective and self-critical.

So, what is my biggest weakness, according to me? Undoubtedly, it’s pushing through the dip.

I’ve written before about how a lot of things came easily to me when I was younger. I did well in school, no problem. I did really well in my A-levels, no problem. And I’m doing pretty well at uni. But when something comes up that I truly find challenging, I struggle to push through the dip and persevere with it. find it hard to keep going with a project if it isn’t inherently easy to me.

This is probably a fairly common problem, but that doesn’t make it OK. It’s easily my biggest mental block and what stops me from achieving what I could, if only I could keep working at it. I can look back on tons of things I’ve attempted to do or learn over the past 3-4 years, and had mild succes to begin with, only to give up when it becomes slightly difficult. In fact, here’s a list:

  • learning HTML/CSS – I coded my own site, it was OK, and I thought I had it down. Stopped trying to get better.
  • comedy writing – I did one show, two years ago, and got a few laughs. Wrote the first half of one episode of a sitcom, and a friend thought it was funny. It’s still on my hard drive.
  • learning the guitar – got a few chords down, could play a song or two, and it sounded half-decent.
  • blogging – did it for a while, started to get some traction, but didn’t know where to go with it, so I stopped.
  • marketing strategy – read some good books, talked to some smart people, worked on a couple of interesting projects, then realised I wasn’t that good. I stopped doing this.
  • free work, RPGrad style – worked on some really cool people doing some very interesting work, then stopped briefly to study for exams, and never started again.
  • card magic – I used to hustle people in bars playing 3 card monte. It was cool, and I got some free drinks from it, but couldn’t do any of the really hard stuff, so I gave up.
  • poker – I started playing online about 18 months ago. Won some decent money, paid for a holiday with it, but couldn’t move up in stakes and really make some good coin, so I gave up.

And that’s just off the top of my head.

My constant failure to push through the dip and acquire some valuable, quality skills and experiences comes from the fact that, if I were to try really hard at something and still suck, it wouldn’t sit well with the self-image that I’ve created, and present me with undeniable evidence that I’m not as smart and confident and brilliant as I think I am. Time and time again, I do the first 20-30% of something, and it’s easy, and I think I’m the man. Then the dip comes, and it’s hard, so I give up, telling myself “I could do [whatever] if I wanted to, but I don’t have time/have better stuff to do/don’t feel like it right now.”

It’s a paralysing fear of failure, of facing the fact that I might have to tear down this carefully crafted self-image and realise how little I know and how much work I need to do to get to where I want to be.

It’s tempting to see my actions as a positive thing – to think that it’s OK to go from one thing to another constantly, telling myself that I’m searching for the thing that I’m passionate about and naturally good, and that once I find that thing, it will come easily and everything will be OK.

But it’s wrong. I’ve just finished Outliers again, and there’s a quote that seems somewhat apt:

Practice isn’t the thing you do once you’re good. It’s the thing that makes you good.

Similarly, working hard isn’t something you do once you’ve found what you want to do. It’s something you should always be doing, and by doing so, you’ll get to where you want.

Nokia and Microsoft form partnership? More like a suicide pact.

News broke yesterday that Nokia and Microsoft will join forces in the mobile phone market in an attempt to:

regain ground lost to the iPhone and Android-based devices.

Let’s try and look at this rationally.

So we have Nokia: a company who, 10 years ago, were the dominant player in their sector, only to be swept aside when they failed to adapt quickly enough when Apple and Google decided to disrupt the shit out of the mobile phone market and do stuff that was wildly different and much better than what anyone had done before.

And we have Microsoft, a company who, 10 years ago, were the dominant player in their sector, only to see their grip on the tech industry broken when Apple and Google decided to disrupt the shit out of the tech market, and do stuff that was wildly different and much better than what anyone had done before.

Worse, Nokia’s CEO knows all this, and still decides to go ahead with it. Unbelievable.

To illustrate how doomed I think this move is, here’s a passage from 33 Strategies of War by Robert Greene. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

The reality facing the Prussians in 1806 was simple: they had fallen fifty years behind the times. Their generals were old, and instead of responding to present circumstances, they were repeating formulas that had worked in the past. Their army moved slowly, and their soldiers were automatons on parade. The Prussian generals had many signs to warn them of disaster: their army had not performed well in its recent engagements, a number of Prussian officers had preached reform, and, last but not least, they had ten years to study Napoleon – his innovative strategies and the speed and fluidity with which his armies converged on the enemy. Reality was staring them in the face, yet they chose to ignore it

For further reading, here’s another article by Robert Greene comparing Google to Napoleon.

Start investing, honestly

Sadly my time at university is slowly coming to an end, and I have to think about getting a job. It’s the end of an era, sure, but I’m looking forward to the challenge of working in a new environment, and I’m also looking forward to not eating pasta every night.

Another thing I’m looking forward to is having some extra money to save and invest. I know that’s weird, but that’s just the sort of person I am.

I created this spreadsheet to calculate how much money you can make if you start investing early. Play around with the monthly amount and the rate of return to see what happens.

You can download it here.

Just from this spreadsheet, you can see the ridiculous benefits of investing early. Compound interest is so much fun.

And a little fact: if you want to be a millionaire, the easiest way to do it is to invest £700 per month in the stock market. If you get an 8% return (the historical return rate of the S&P 500), you’ll have £1million in just under 30 years.

Beats playing the lottery.