Tag Archives: recession

Why you shouldn’t care at all about the Eurozone crisis

If you’re an individual or a small business, you don’t need to worry about the Eurozone crisis. You don’t need to think about the ongoing recession. It should be the last thing on your mind.

Why? Is this not the worst recession since the Great Depression? Could this not be The End of the Eurozone?

Yeah, maybe. But ask yourself this:

Can you do anything to change it?

You can’t set fiscal and monetary policy. You can’t force Greece or Portugal (or the US) to cut spending. You can’t force companies to invest more.

So stop worrying about it. It’s out of your control.

What should you worry about? I’m glad you asked.

People: get your finances in order. Stop overspending. Look at earning more money through a second job or freelancing if you need to. Start eating healthily and exercising regularly. Take time every day to be grateful for the good things in your life. Think how you can do your job better: make a list of ideas and pick the best two, and start doing that.

Businesses: stay focused on your customer. Always think what they would want you to do. Even in this economy there are opportunities – Groupon is the fastest-growing company in history by revenues, and was formed in November 2008. There is money to be made, and people will fall over themselves to give you their money, if you can give them what they want or need.

In other words, focus on things you can control. Forget about things you can’t.

The best paragraph (and a half) I’ve read today

From Alex Mann‘s interview with Philalawyer:

I’m referring to solving actual, human problems using available communication tools, regardless if it’s called “social media” or not. The tools will never replace humans, but they can help.

Look at the reaction to the Iranian election online. A lightweight Internet application, Twitter, has created a sense of healthy transparency in a geographic arena that has been traditionally stubborn by design in the past. The conversation has always existed, but now it’s being funneled and aggregated online. The tools haven’t created the conversation; they just created an outlet. That’s more democracy than Iran has ever felt.

The whole article is great. Read it here.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 5: Confidence is everything

So, when a lot of mortgage-backed securities were found to be close to worthless, companies that were holding a lot of them at the time, such as Northern Rock, found themselves struggling.

The problem is, large swathes of the economy rely on confidence. Banks are happy to lend to you if they are confident that you’ll be able to pay it back in the future; people invest in the stock market if they’re confident that their investments will increase in value; people spend money today because they’re confident they’ll have more money to spend tomorrow.

But when something scary happens, like a lot of people defaulting on mortgages and a burst in a housing bubble, people’s confidence takes a huge dent.

Suddenly, banks don’t want to lend money to you or your company, because they’re unsure about the future and don’t know if you’ll be able to pay it back. Companies, pension funds and individuals don’t invest in the stock market, as they’ve heard lots of scary words on the radio like “recession”, “volatility”, “Ponzi scheme”, and “bailout”. And individuals don’t spend money because they’re unsure about their job stability, and whether tomorrow will finally be the rainy day that they’ve neglected to save for, because who cares, it’s summertime.

And if businesses can’t borrow money, they struggle to operate properly. They can’t buy new machinery, factories or equipment, they might not be able to get short-term finance to pay their employees, and their customers are running scared. They make cuts, lay people off and don’t invest.

People are scared of the stock market. There’s a fall in demand for shares of companies. Share prices fall.

And people decide to save their money instead of spend it. They downgrade their brands at the supermarket. They hold off on that new HD TV. They stick with their old car instead of buying a new one.

All of this leads to economic contraction. And brings about a recession.

Welcome to 2009.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 4: Mortgage-backed securities

In my last post I talked about securitization – where a bank will effectively package loans together and sell them on to investors. These investors buy securities to try and make a return, and the bank sell them to get the loans off their books and continue making loans to people.

This is basically what happened with hundreds and thousands of subprime mortgages in the US. In the 1990s there was a housing boom in the US (and the UK), and more and more houses were built, more people were lent money than previously, and there was a growing assumption that house prices would continue to rise.

This video explains it all rather well. Skip to 2:55.

Lots and lots of mortgages lent to people who couldn’t afford to pay them on houses that are going down in value. Now there’s a good investment.

Essentially, the foreclosure rate (the number of people who defaulted on their mortgages due to being unable to meet the repayments) increased rather dramatically, meaning that the MBSs weren’t worth all that much, especially as the houses that were repossessed couldn’t be sold for the value of the mortgage that was originally lent out.

This meant that mortgage-backed securities lost a huge amount of their value very quickly, and banks and investment funds that were holding them at the time had to write down the value of them (Writing down value means that, on one day a bank might have had an asset on its books called “MBS 1″ that was valued at £100m, but then a week later the bank found out it wasn’t worth anywhere near that, so they might have to revalue it at, say, £25m, which is an instant £75m loss for the bank).

This led to the huge losses that somebanks had suffered, and this is the reason Northern Rock went under, as far as I am aware. They had a lot of these assets on their books at one point, and suddenly the music stopped, and NR were in the shit.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 3: securitization

In my last post I talked about how banks make a profit by taking your deposits, and paying you interest on them and lending out those deposits to people who want to borrow money, charging a higher rate of interest on the loans than they pay on deposits – this difference being the bank’s profit.

This assumes that the banks simply keep the loans on their own books and collect the loan payments over time. However, banks will often sell these loans off to investors, which is called securitization.

A good example is David Bowie (stay with me). In 1997 David Bowie calculated what he expected his royalty earnings from record sales to be for the next ten years, and decided he’d rather have the money now. So he packaged up the rights to his royalty earnings and sold them to investors in the form of Bowie Bonds. Bowie was paid $55m in 1997 for these bonds, and over the next ten years the investors collected whatever royalties Bowie would have earned on his record sales.

In effect, this is what banks do with mortgages. They lend out, say, £10m in mortgages. If they were to keep the mortgages on their own books, they would earn (for example) £15m in mortgage payments over 10 years. But rather than do that, the bank instead takes this package of £10m worth of mortgages and sells it to investors for the market price. These investors then receive a return on this investment, in the form of mortgage payments from those who borrowed money from the bank in the first place.

Again, wikipedia is much better than me at explaining these things:

XYZ Bank loans 10 people $100,000 a piece, which they will use to buy homes. XYZ has invested in the success and/or failure of those 10 home buyers- if the buyers make their payments and pay off the loans, XYZ makes a profit. Looking at it another way, XYZ has taken the risk that some borrowers won’t repay the loan. In exchange for taking that risk, the borrowers pay XYZ interest on the money they borrow.

From the perspective of XYZ, those loans are 10 different assets. They have value- one, if the loan fails, XYZ takes ownership of the house. Two, if the loan succeeds, XYZ gets their money back along with the interest they charge.

XYZ can do two things with those loans. They can hold them for 30 years and, they would hope, make a profit on their investment. Or they could sell them to some other investor, and walk away. In doing this, they would make less profit than if they held onto them long term, but they would benefit in that they make some profit while also getting their original investment back. They give up some of the reward (profit) in exchange for not having the risk.

So XYZ Bank decides they’d rather have the cash now. They could sell those 10 loans to 10 investors. Each investor would be taking a risk in buying those loans, because if any loan defaults, that one investor loses. Naturally, investors would not be willing to pay very much for those loans, knowing the risk involved. XYZ wants to sell those loans for the best price they can get, so they decide to securitize those loans. They combine the 10 loans into one entity, and then they split that one entity into 10 equal shares. Each investor still pays the same $100,000, but instead of owning one loan, they will own 10% of all 10 loans. If one loan fails, every investor loses 10%.

The result is that XYZ bank is able to sell their assets for more money, and investors are insulated from the volatility of directly owning mortgages.

Such is the power of securitization. And this is basically what happened with all the subprime mortgages lent out in the US. They were packaged into securities and then sold to investors.

Next post on how this affected banks so badly.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch, part 2: How do banks work?

I’ve decided that the entire economic crisis as a whole is too difficult for me to explain fully in simple terms (partly because I personally don’t understand it all and partly because there are so many reasons for it), so I’ve decided to re-focus this series of posts slightly.

I will (try to) explain to you exactly how the subprime mortgage market collapsed, and why this is bad for banks and for the economy. It’s not the only major force behind the recession, but it’s a biggie.

If you want to try and understand the entire economic downturn, try these wikipedia articles:

Global financial crisis of 2008-2009

Late 2000s recession

Financial crisis of 2007-2009

Anyway, I will focus on the causes and effects of the subprime mortgage collapse. And to first understand that, we must understand how a bank makes its money.

We all have a bank account, many of us two or three or more. The reason we do this is because our money is safer in a bank than under our beds. Not only this, but the bank usually gives us a (very small) return on our money, in the form of interest. I think my current account pays out about 2% interest per annum, meaning that if I had £100 in my bank for one year, then at the end of the year I would have £102.

But a bank doesn’t just hold onto your money and let you get at it whenever you want, and pay you for the privelige. It lends your money out. Say you and 9 other people all deposit £100 in a bank, the bank would have £1000 on its books. Then someone comes along and asks the bank for a loan. The bank lends this person (let’s call him Dave, because that’s a boring name) £200, leaving the bank with £800 left on its books. But the bank lends the money out to Dave at a rate of, say, 10% per annum. That is, assuming Dave pays nothing on the loan for the first year, he will owe the bank £220. The bank will do the same to Mary and John, lending them £200 then asking for the loan back at the end of the year.

So in total the bank has lent out £600 of the £1000 worth of deposits that I and 9 others placed in the bank at the start of the year. If all the loans are repaid at the end of the first year, then the bank now has £1060. If it pays out the 2% interest on the ten accounts that the bank has (a total of £20), then the bank is left with a year end profit of £40.

The bank’s profit is the difference between the interest it pays on deposits, and the interest it charges on loans. Simple so far.

Next post on what the bank does with those loans after they’ve lent them to you.

A layman’s guide to the credit crunch

As an economics student every now and then my friends ask me, “Andy, what exactly is going on with this whole economic crisis?” I try my hardest to explain this to them, but this scenario usually happens after a couple of beers, at which point they’re in no mood to listen to me talk about derivatives, mortgage-backed securities and hedge funds, and I’m not great at explaining them.

But I think it’s very important that people my age try to at least comprehend what’s going on in the world economy at the moment. I’m going to try and do a series of posts explaining the main causes and effects of the current economic crisis. If at any point you think I’ve made a mistake, or overlooked anything, or misunderstood something, please, let me know.

Firstly then, a few resources to help people get a grasp on the main issues. BBC has done a 3 part series recently called “The City Uncovered with Evan Davis”. You can watch them online here:

Banks and How To Break Them

Tricks with Risk

When Markets Go Mad

Note: these links definitely work for UK readers – I’m not sure about people in the US or other countries. If you have any problems viewing them let me know and I’ll try and find a solution.

Evan Davis is (or, was) the Economics Editor for the BBC, and he’s an incredibly smart guy. Most people just know him as the guy who presents Dragons Den (and reminds people constantly that the participants need to get ALL the money they’re asking for, or they leave with nothing, as if we didn’t know that already – the show’s been on for like 5 years now). But Evan is brilliant at explaining complex economic and financial issues in simple terms, as evidenced in these videos.

That’s 3 hours worth of viewing, and although it’s long, it’s well worth the investment of your time to try to understand better the causes of the breakdown in the financial markets.

More coming soon. Thanks guys.